Five weeks into the Iran conflict, policy divergence across the Gulf states is becoming impossible to ignore. Today’s briefing is packed — let’s get straight to it.

01 Lead Story: Saudi PIF Shifts to Wartime Priorities

PIF Governor Al-Rumayyan dropped a major signal at the FII Miami summit last week: global investment commitments remain intact, but capital allocation is undergoing a fundamental reset.

A new five-year strategy (2026–2030) will be released within weeks. The pivot is clear — away from mega-infrastructure projects and toward four priorities: AI compute, defense industries, food security, and logistics. Spending on flagship projects like NEOM has already been frozen or cut by roughly 15%.

The logic is straightforward. War has forced Saudi Arabia to recalculate. NEOM’s “city of the future” narrative still sounds impressive, but in a wartime environment, AI compute is the foundational capability for both military and economic power. Defense is a non-negotiable security need. Food security is the baseline for social stability. And logistics resilience is essential given the risks to the Strait of Hormuz. Every one of these priorities is more pragmatic than building glass facades in the desert.

MIRISE Take: This is not a temporary wartime adjustment — it’s a structural pivot in Saudi industrial policy. PIF manages nearly $1 trillion in assets; where it invests defines Saudi Arabia’s industrial trajectory for the next five years. Chinese companies with Saudi exposure that are still betting on mega-construction need to seriously reassess. AI infrastructure, defense supply chains, agritech, and cold-chain logistics — these are where sovereign capital is heading. Watch closely for the official release of the new five-year strategy.

Sources: PIF / Bloomberg

02 Today’s Key Developments

UAE Economy Ministry Dismisses Capital Control Rumors

The viral social media claims about impending UAE capital controls have been officially denied. The Ministry of Economy reiterated that greenfield FDI reached $33.2 billion in 2025, up 79% year-on-year, and that the UAE remains the most open investment environment in the Gulf.

For businesses operating in Dubai, the message is clear: capital flows remain unchanged. Wartime panic inevitably fuels speculation, but the UAE’s position is unambiguous — openness during turbulence is its core competitive advantage.

Source: Gulf News

CBUAE OTP Ban Takes Effect Today

March 31 marks the enforcement date for the Central Bank’s comprehensive ban on SMS and email OTP authentication. Financial institutions still relying on text-message verification have missed the compliance window. Penalties start at AED 250,000.

If your business involves payments, banking APIs, or financial applications, this isn’t a matter of “reviewing soon” — it’s about confirming compliance today. Organizations that haven’t migrated to biometric authentication or hardware tokens need to act immediately.

Source: FacePhi / CBUAE

Bahrain’s Fiscal Vulnerability Warning

Bahrain’s numbers are concerning: debt-to-GDP at 134%, fiscal deficit at 11%. The Iran conflict also poses direct threats to its oil fields and port infrastructure. Among the GCC’s six member states, Bahrain has the thinnest fiscal buffer.

Companies with Bahrain exposure should proactively model for rising operational costs, particularly in insurance, logistics, and labor.

Source: AGBI

Oman’s Ports Emerge as Global Alternative Hub

The biggest beneficiary of Strait of Hormuz tensions has emerged — Oman. Rerouting requests to Sohar Port have surged 1,766%, while Salalah Port has seen an 800% increase. These ports are rapidly transitioning from regional secondary facilities to global trade alternatives.

Companies positioning in Middle East logistics should reassess Oman’s strategic value. Traffic growth at this scale is not a temporary wartime phenomenon — it is likely to permanently reshape regional logistics.

Source: Oman News Agency

  • Wartime policy divergence deepens: The UAE doubles down on openness to attract capital, Saudi Arabia pivots from construction to hard tech, and Bahrain enters fiscal austerity. Three countries, three paths — businesses expanding to the Middle East can no longer make decisions under a single regional label.
  • Compliance crunch concludes: March 31 is a critical deadline — UAE visa exemptions, the OTP ban, and Saudi ZATCA excise tax requirements all expire today. Missing any of these means real financial penalties.
  • Logistics realignment is irreversible: The Hormuz crisis is permanently reshaping regional trade routes. Oman’s surging port data shows the market is already voting with its feet.